Huffington Post Carries Roger Stone Analysis of Gary Johnson's Impact on Outcome of Presidential Election

Huffington Post has this commentary by Roger Stone. It points out that in nationwide polls, it appears that a majority of voters who intend to vote for Gary Johnson would be more likely to vote for Mitt Romney if Johnson weren’t running. But it also points out that in certain crucial swing states, there is data showing that Gary Johnson voters would be more likely to vote for President Obama if Johnson weren’t running.

Much commentary about the “spoiler effect” of minor party candidates is woefully unsophisticated. The Stone piece is a good reminder of that. There is other empirical evidence that the effect is complicated. In 2004, the nation’s leading polls determined that voters who intended to vote for Ralph Nader, by a slight margin, would have been more likely to vote for President Bush than for Senator Kerry. Also, in 1950, pollster Sam Lubell published his findings in “The Future of American Politics” that Progressive Party nominee Henry Wallace caused President Truman to defeat Thomas Dewey in 1948. And, a recent book called “Predictably Irrational” presented social science evidence to rebut the simplistic interpretation of “spoiling.”

6 comments

  1. Michael Morrison · · Reply

    Gary Johnson associate Charles Frohman keeps posting that Gary Johnson and Jim Gray will be on all 50 ballots. Is there really ANY possibility of that?
    Isn’t Oklahoma still like North Korea, keeping off the ballot everyone but the state-approved parties?
    What, please, is the latest number of states Johnson-Gray can expect? Thank you.

  2. Richard Winger · · Reply

    The number will be 50, or 49, or 48, or 47.

  3. Casual Bystander · · Reply

    Don’t stick your neck out, Richard! 😉

  4. el pee (on) R,D · · Reply

    plus dc

  5. Johnson’s ballot status will likely end up being decided by Federal Judges on Mich,Pennsylvania and Oklahoma. The GOP has unleashed a paid army of lawyers and private investigators (many my old colleagues )in an baldfaced and illegitimate effort to to block Gov. Johnson from the ballot. I spent 30 years in the corroded rectum of the 2-party system. I saw it up close and what I saw was not pretty. Now I am working with Gov. Gary Johnson for real change LIVE FREE

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